Why are mortgage rates climbing today? It comes down to three things moving at once: Treasury buybacks, a yen intervention, and rising oil prices. Let me break it down.

Bessent Says He's "the House Now"

Or maybe it's more of a Walter White "I'm the one who knocks" moment.

Scott Bessent announced today that the Treasury would buy back up to $6B in long term treasuries. He also addressed speculation about the US move to bolster the yen, calling it a risk worth taking.

His exact words: "I have asymmetric information... I am the house now." He's daring doubters to bet against the Treasury's moves.

Why the Yen Intervention Matters for Your Mortgage

Back on July 30th, the Japanese yen hit a multi decade low of about 164 yen to the dollar. Japan's Ministry of Finance stepped in to stop the bleeding. The US joined them the following day, selling off euros to buy yen.

Here's why this matters to you. Japan is one of the world's largest holders of US treasuries. These actions could be aimed at stopping Japan from selling off its own treasury holdings.

If more treasuries hit the market, we'd have a large supply. That means yields would have to increase to persuade more buyers. And higher yields on US treasuries mean higher mortgage rates.

Oil Prices Are Adding Fuel to the Fire

Oil is up too. West Texas crude is now at $96, up from $93, after more exchanged strikes in Iran.

Today's Rate Snapshot

  • Average 30 Year Rate (Mortgage News Daily): 6.89%
  • 10 Year Treasury Yield: 4.843%
  • UMBS 30 Year: 98.44

What's Next: Fed Meeting and Inflation Data

The Fed meets next week to decide what to do with rates. An important piece of that puzzle is this upcoming Friday's inflation reading.

If you want help figuring out how moves like this affect your own home buying timeline, grab a free planning session with me and we'll walk through it together.

Sam

Originally shared by u/SamTMortgageBroker in r/NewbHomebuyer — view the original thread.