Is the Utah housing market actually picking up speed? Short answer: yes. We just had two months in a row at a pace this state hasn't touched since 2022. Let's break down the numbers and what's driving them.

Two months back to back at a 2022 pace

Last month Utah closed 3,681 homes. It was a good month, very busy. The month before that, June, we closed just under 4,000, and that was the single busiest month of any month this state has seen in four years. You have to go back to June of 2022, the tail end of the frenzy, to find a bigger month.

So that's two months back to back at a pace we haven't touched since 2022.

If we add up every closing this year through July, we're at 23,800 homes sold. That's more homes sold than the same stretch of any year since 2022. It's 3% more than last year, 7% more than the year before, and 11% more than 2023. I'm liking this trend.

Inventory is meeting the demand

We have about 8% more inventory now than we did at this point last year, and close to 50% more inventory than we had at this point in 2022. It's definitely more balanced, and we're trending in the right direction.

I hate to do this, but imagine how this summer could have gone with all this inventory we have. Imagine how it could have gone if we hadn't seen oil prices and mortgage rates spike back up. More buyers to take on more of this inventory. I think we'd have had an even busier month.

Either way, things are going in the right direction. Sales are trending up, and inventory is meeting the demand. If you're trying to figure out where you fit into this market, my affordability calculator is a good place to start.

A genuinely weak retail sales report

Let's talk about rates. This morning brought a genuinely weak retail sales report. Spending fell six tenths in a month it was expected to rise, and the savings rate is near an all time low, around 2.7%. It's one soft month, not a trend yet, but for the one part of the economy that's stayed strong, it's worth watching.

Mortgage bonds finally broke the technical ceiling that had capped every rally for weeks, and held it. So it's looking good.

What's next

Next week we get housing data nationally, covering building permits, housing starts, and pending home sales, plus the Fed's meeting minutes. Those minutes are basically a transcript of the meeting that just happened, and investors will get a more detailed look and have their own reaction to it.

If you want to talk through what any of this means for your own plans, grab a spot on my free planning session and we'll map it out.

That's it for today. Have a great weekend, everyone.

Originally shared by u/SamTMortgageBroker in r/UtahHomeBuying — view the original thread.